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Then the intrepid and never-shy-with-his-opinion Jeff Gundlach, maybe the hottest bond manager in the country, will regale us with his insights. Is anybody more on top of his game than Jeff has been lately? They will be followed by Stephanie Pomboy, whom I have wanted to have at the conference for years.

My friend Ian Bremmer, the brilliant geopolitical analyst and founder of Eurasia Group, who is consistently one of the conference favorites and whose latest book we will try to have for you if it is off the press in time , will join, us followed by David Zervos of Jefferies, former Fed economist and fearless prognosticator, who has an enviable track record since he joined Jefferies five years ago.

He is currently quite bullish on Europe for some of the same reasons I outline below. The next day we will have Michael Pettis flying in from China to give us his views on how Asia rebalances and China manages its transition. Michael has been one of the most consistently on-target analysts on China and is wired into the thought leaders in the country. And what fun would the conference be without Kyle Bass of Hayman Advisors offering us his latest ideas?

We are finalizing agreements with another four to five equally well-known speakers, which will include a few surprises, as well as rounding out the panels. I will share those names with you as we nail them down. Since the first year of the Strategic Investment Conference, my one rule has been to create a conference that I want to attend. Unlike many conferences, there are no sponsors who pay to speak. Normal conferences have a few headliners to attract a crowd and then a lot of fill-ins.

Everyone at my conference is an A-list speaker I want to hear, who would headline anywhere else. And because all the speakers know the quality of the lineup, they bring their A games. Get this free newsletter in your inbox every Saturday! Read our privacy policy here. Attendees routinely tell me that this is the best conference anywhere every year. And most of the speakers hang around to hear what is being said, which means you get to meet them at breaks and dinners. Plus, this year I am arranging for quite a number of writers and analysts to show up just to be there to talk with you.

And I must say that the best part of the conference is mingling with fellow attendees. You will make new friends and be able to share ideas with other investors just like yourself. I really hope you can make it. Registration is simple. While the conference is not cheap, the largest cost is your time, and I try to make it worth every minute. There are also two private breakfasts where hedge funds will be presenting. Altegris will contact you to let you know the details.

For whatever reason, the cost of betting on a bull market is much lower than trying to protect from a bear market. You have to work a little bit more to find these plays and to make sure you get the right price. Getting my year options on the yen took a little time, but they are starting to pay off. For whatever reason, the cost premium relative to the strike price and recent movement in the yen-dollar cross is actually cheaper than it was when I bought a year ago. I have no idea why that would be, but markets can get to be strangely priced.

And yes, I am tempted to add to my position because of that price structure, even though I have a reasonable position already. Jawad Mian argued that Europe is going to be the place to be over the next year. Long-term readers can guess that I was quite skeptical of that view, as I see nothing but problems in Europe; but as the days went on I began to see the trading wisdom in his thinking, especially relative to the US.

Our issue is that three key drivers of US equity outperformance are going into reverse:. In fact, the Fed is making moves toward tightening, while everyone else is easing. In a very short period, the US dollar has gone from being significantly undervalued against almost all currencies, to being fairly valued against most, to now being overvalued against the likes of the euro and the yen. On a number of measures the market is stretched. Even though the Federal Reserve rate hike has probably been pushed off into the third quarter, it will soon be priced into the market.

They are not alone. The Russell small-company index is down for the last year, quarter, month, week, and day. Small companies in general are in a bear market though numerous small companies, typically ones that are tech-focused in some way, are having a banner year. So, where do you go if you are taking money off the table from the US? Counterintuitively, the coming Greek crisis suggests that we might want to look to Europe.

As we read the headlines, it would appear that Europe is heading for a major confrontation over Greece. Tsipras and his left-leaning coalition party, Syriza, were elected on the basis that there would have to be major haircuts in the Greek debt, as well as relief from the austerity requirements imposed by the Troika the ECB, IMF, and European Commission in the wake of the last Greek bailout. Within a few weeks, Greece will need significant loans to make its debt payments and to pay its bills.

The requirement for getting those loans is that Greece must adhere to the regime that was agreed to by the previous government. Tsipras and company have made it quite clear that they do not intend to do so. Money appears to be leaving Greece, and deposits are at their lowest levels since A Greek exit from the Eurozone has the potential to precipitate a crisis. An excessively permissive compromise by the Eurozone might also create a crisis.

Everybody, and I mean everybody not just the Germans , recognizes that Greece cannot actually pay its debts. They are digging themselves an ever-deeper hole, and the austerity measures are keeping the country mired in a state of depression. However, if Europe does the seemingly humane thing and forgives the bulk of the debt, then parties on both the far left and the far right throughout Europe may demand the same deal that Greece gets.

You can almost guarantee that far-left coalitions in Italy and Spain and the far-right party in France would come to power as a result. That would eventually blow up the Eurozone and potentially even the European Union — not exactly what European leaders want. This is not a situation that is going to fester for a long time, as the clock is ticking and debt payments will have to be made in the very near future.

So what will happen? I think it might help us to look at who actually owns that Greek debt. There are restrictions on what the ECB and the IMF can do in regards to debt relief, and private investors are not going to be thrilled with any solution that does not fulfill the terms of their bonds.

Coming up with a compromise is going to be very complex. That said, my sources tell me that a tentative deal has already been reached that will look like the balanced compromise scenario in the chart above. That is not the debt forgiveness that he promised his followers, but it is the next best thing.

The Greeks are a classic case of dysfunctionality. They want to eat their cake and have it, too. They want their debt to go away, but they want to stay in the Eurozone. And while the compromise outlined above does not make the debt go away, it does stop the immediate pain. As part of that compromise, it appears that some of the austerity controls will be relaxed, allowing Tsipras to fulfill some of his promises.

His challenge will then be to convince his followers that he got them a good deal and that debt forbearance is almost as good as debt forgiveness. It should be an easy sell to a sophisticated electorate, but it is not altogether clear that the Greeks are that economically sophisticated, and it may be that they are just generally pissed at the Germans and ready to duke it out.

It does, however, postpone the immediate crisis for maybe two years. European stocks are a much more attractive buy than US stocks on a valuation basis. The euro should continue to fall, so if one were to purchase specific European companies rather than general indexes on a currency-hedge basis, there is a real opportunity for outperformance.

And if discussions break down and we get the dreaded Grexit which is still a possibility if you listen to the rhetoric of the new finance minister , then we get chaos for a while, but Europe might be better off and a far more stable place, which is also positive. So, either way, MAJOR European problems are postponed, and everyone will revert to happy talk and markets should rise.

Some final thoughts on Greece. Syriza comprises an amalgam of parties stretching the spectrum from center left to insanely left. They have never been in power, and they have no clue as to what running a country actually requires. Greece is essentially starting a rookie quarterback in their equivalent of the Super Bowl.

Recent statements and actions by various new ministers in Greece are not encouraging. They look like the Keystone Cops of governing. If Tsipras and Syriza use this opportunity to clean out some of the corruption that is endemic in Greece, and do so without replacing it with any of their own, that would be positive. However, Syriza gave the far-right-wing separatist party their majority coalition partner the position of minister of defense, whereupon the appointee demanded and won the right to execute defense purchasing contracts with just one signature — his.

Which could be a step back to corruption as usual in Greece. If the corruption is not dealt with, things are not likely to improve. Syriza still has to govern, though, making the trains run, making sure healthcare is available, etc. The jury is out, and it would not surprise me if voters get frustrated in less than a year and we see Greek elections again. Finally, as my friend Mish Shedlock points out, even if Greece is able to take its primary surplus and apply it to the debt, it will take multiple generations to get the debt under control, even at zero interest.

My central case is that the Eurozone will create the compromise for Greece outlined above and that when the next European crisis hits, probably triggered by France, Europe will either have to create a true fiscal union and mutualize the debt of all countries or break up the Eurozone. Then the debt problem then simply goes away. Problem solved. We were doing a roundtable interview with all of the team much of which will be on video in a few weeks , and the issue of portfolio design came up.

There are a growing number of academic studies which point out that growth in the portfolio of an average investor is highly correlated with overall global growth. That suggests that a portfolio structured to take advantage of global growth is appropriate for most investors. This furthermore suggests that the phenomenon is not easily discounted away, despite widespread knowledge of its existence.

You might wonder why something that otherwise appears to be nothing but an accounting entry can have such bullish consequences. Though that sweet spot is not precisely defined, companies will not split their shares, even if the prices of those shares have risen sharply, if management believes there is a significant probability that their prices will fall back by themselves. Click here to inquire about subscriptions to the Hulbert Sentiment Indexes.

Mark Hulbert is a columnist for MarketWatch. His Hulbert Ratings service tracks investment newsletters that pay a flat fee to be audited. Home Investing Stocks Mark Hulbert. Mark Hulbert. By Mark Hulbert. Stocks are still too expensive and rising rates may shock financial system, Seth Klarman warns.