Value investors actively ferret out stocks they think the stock market is underestimating. They believe the market overreacts to good and bad news, resulting in stock price movements that do not correspond to a company's long-term fundamentals. The overreaction offers an opportunity to profit by buying stocks at discounted prices—on sale. Warren Buffett is probably the best-known value investor today, but there are many others, including Benjamin Graham Buffett's professor and mentor , David Dodd, Charlie Munger , Christopher Browne another Graham student , and billionaire hedge-fund manager , Seth Klarman.
The basic concept behind everyday value investing is straightforward: If you know the true value of something, you can save a lot of money when you buy it on sale. Just like savvy shoppers would argue that it makes no sense to pay full price for a TV since TVs go on sale several times a year, savvy value investors believe stocks work the same way.
Value investing is the process of doing detective work to find these secret sales on stocks and buying them at a discount compared to how the market values them. In return for buying and holding these value stocks for the long term, investors can be rewarded handsomely. In the stock market, the equivalent of a stock being cheap or discounted is when its shares are undervalued.
Value investors hope to profit from shares they perceive to be deeply discounted. Investors use various metrics to attempt to find the valuation or intrinsic value of a stock. Intrinsic value is a combination of using financial analysis such as studying a company's financial performance, revenue, earnings, cash flow, and profit as well as fundamental factors, including the company's brand, business model, target market, and competitive advantage.
Some metrics used to value a company's stock include:. Of course, there are many other metrics used in the analysis, including analyzing debt, equity, sales, and revenue growth. After reviewing these metrics, the value investor can decide to purchase shares if the comparative value—the stock's current price vis-a-vis its company's intrinsic worth—is attractive enough.
Value investors require some room for error in their estimation of value, and they often set their own " margin of safety ," based on their particular risk tolerance. The margin of safety principle, one of the keys to successful value investing, is based on the premise that buying stocks at bargain prices gives you a better chance at earning a profit later when you sell them. Value investors use the same sort of reasoning. On top of that, the company might grow and become more valuable, giving you a chance to make even more money.
Benjamin Graham, the father of value investing, only bought stocks when they were priced at two-thirds or less of their intrinsic value. This was the margin of safety he felt was necessary to earn the best returns while minimizing investment downside.
Instead, value investors believe that stocks may be over- or underpriced for a variety of reasons. For example, a stock might be underpriced because the economy is performing poorly and investors are panicking and selling as was the case during the Great Recession.
Or a stock might be overpriced because investors have gotten too excited about an unproven new technology as was the case of the dot-com bubble. Psychological biases can push a stock price up or down based on news, such as disappointing or unexpected earnings announcements, product recalls, or litigation. Stocks may also be undervalued because they trade under the radar, meaning they're inadequately covered by analysts and the media.
They think about buying a stock for what it actually is: a percentage of ownership in a company. They want to own companies that they know have sound principles and sound financials, regardless of what everyone else is saying or doing. Estimating the true intrinsic value of a stock involves some financial analysis but also involves a fair amount of subjectivity—meaning at times, it can be more of an art than a science.
Two different investors can analyze the exact same valuation data on a company and arrive at different decisions. Some investors, who look only at existing financials, don't put much faith in estimating future growth. Other value investors focus primarily on a company's future growth potential and estimated cash flows. And some do both: Noted value investment gurus Warren Buffett and Peter Lynch, who ran Fidelity Investment's Magellan Fund for several years are both known for analyzing financial statements and looking at valuation multiples, in order to identify cases where the market has mispriced stocks.
Despite different approaches, the underlying logic of value investing is to purchase assets for less than they are currently worth, hold them for the long-term, and profit when they return to the intrinsic value or above. It doesn't provide instant gratification. Instead, you may have to wait years before your stock investments pay off, and you will occasionally lose money. The good news is that, for most investors, long-term capital gains are taxed at a lower rate than short-term investment gains.
Like all investment strategies, you must have the patience and diligence to stick with your investment philosophy. Sometimes people invest irrationally based on psychological biases rather than market fundamentals. So instead of keeping their losses on paper and waiting for the market to change directions, they accept a certain loss by selling.
Such investor behavior is so widespread that it affects the prices of individual stocks, exacerbating both upward and downward market movements creating excessive moves. When the market reaches an unbelievable high, it usually results in a bubble.
But because the levels are unsustainable, investors end up panicking, leading to a massive selloff. This results in a market crash. That's what happened in the early s with the dotcom bubble, when the values of tech stocks shot up beyond what the companies were worth. We saw the same thing happened when the housing bubble burst and the market crashed in the mids. Look beyond what you're hearing in the news.
You may find really great investment opportunities in undervalued stocks that may not be on people's radars like small caps or even foreign stocks. Most investors want in on the next big thing such as a technology startup instead of a boring, established consumer durables manufacturer.
Even good companies face setbacks, such as litigation and recalls. In other cases, there may be a segment or division that puts a dent in a company's profitability. But that can change if the company decides to dispose of or close that arm of the business.
But value investors who can see beyond the downgrades and negative news can buy stock at deeper discounts because they are able to recognize a company's long-term value. Cyclicality is defined as the fluctuations that affect a business.
Companies are not immune to ups and downs in the economic cycle, whether that's seasonality and the time of year, or consumer attitudes and moods. All of this can affect profit levels and the price of a company's stock, but it doesn't affect the company's value in the long term. The key to buying an undervalued stock is to thoroughly research the company and make common-sense decisions.
Value investor Christopher H. Browne recommends asking if a company is likely to increase its revenue via the following methods:. Browne also suggests studying a company's competitors to evaluate its future growth prospects. But the answers to all of these questions tend to be speculative, without any real supportive numerical data. Simply put: There are no quantitative software programs yet available to help achieve these answers, which makes value stock investing somewhat of a grand guessing game.
For this reason, Warren Buffett recommends investing only in industries you have personally worked in, or whose consumer goods you are familiar with, like cars, clothes, appliances, and food. One thing investors can do is choose the stocks of companies that sell high-demand products and services. While it's difficult to predict when innovative new products will capture market share, it's easy to gauge how long a company has been in business and study how it has adapted to challenges over time.
Nonetheless, if mass sell-offs are occurring by insiders, such a situation may warrant further in-depth analysis of the reason behind the sale. At some point, value investors have to look at a company's financials to see how its performing and compare it to industry peers.
It will explain the products and services offered as well as where the company is heading. Retained earnings is a type of savings account that holds the cumulative profits from the company. Retained earnings are used to pay dividends, for example, and are considered a sign of a healthy, profitable company.
The income statement tells you how much revenue is being generated, the company's expenses, and profits. Studies have consistently found that value stocks outperform growth stocks and the market as a whole, over the long term. It is possible to become a value investor without ever reading a K. Couch potato investing is a passive strategy of buying and holding a few investing vehicles for which someone else has already done the investment analysis—i.
In the case of value investing, those funds would be those that follow the value strategy and buy value stocks—or track the moves of high-profile value investors, like Warren Buffett. Investors can buy shares of his holding company, Berkshire Hathaway, which owns or has an interest in dozens of companies the Oracle of Omaha has researched and evaluated.
As with any investment strategy, there's the risk of loss with value investing despite it being a low-to-medium-risk strategy. Below we highlight a few of those risks and why losses can occur. Many investors use financial statements when they make value investing decisions. So if you rely on your own analysis, make sure you have the most updated information and that your calculations are accurate.
If not, you may end up making a poor investment or miss out on a great one. One strategy is to read the footnotes. There are some incidents that may show up on a company's income statement that should be considered exceptions or extraordinary. These are generally beyond the company's control and are called extraordinary item —gain or extraordinary item —loss. Some examples include lawsuits, restructuring, or even a natural disaster.
If you exclude these from your analysis, you can probably get a sense of the company's future performance. However, think critically about these items, and use your judgment. If a company has a pattern of reporting the same extraordinary item year after year, it might not be too extraordinary. Also, if there are unexpected losses year after year, this can be a sign that the company is having financial problems.
Extraordinary items are supposed to be unusual and nonrecurring. Also, beware of a pattern of write-offs. There isn't just one way to determine financial ratios, which can be fairly problematic. His audacity is breathtaking. As I said, Newton was a great hater and being fooled by Chaloner a couple of times was enough to ensure no stone would be left unturned to bring Chaloner down.
But the lesson is that greed makes fools of us all. The most interesting parts of this book for me were the bits about trimming coins — I knew about this before, but what had never been made clear to me was just how much people had trimmed off. The point was to make money by trimming off some of the gold but not so much that you were not able to still pass them off as being full weight.
This is often used as an example to explain why we ended up with paper that is, valueless money. The other really interesting thing is about the price of silver. England was finding itself constantly short of silver coins — the reason was that silver was more valuable across the channel in France and so people were melting down English coins, sending it down the Thames and bringing back bars of French gold.
Now, you would think that a Belfast boy would have noticed that before. View all 5 comments. Nov 16, Ms. Shelves: finance-accounting-accounting-fraud , memoir-biography , nonfiction , history. England's money was vanishing! To be specific, legal silver coinage was being taken out of circulation, melted down, and was being sold abroad at a handsome profit throughout the last half of the 17th century.
Stop gap loans including 1. In the middle of a war with France, the country was on the brink of bankruptcy. The solution? Let's get the smartest guy in England and put him in charge of England's money. We England's money was vanishing! Well, it didn't actually play out in exactly that way. Sir Isaac Newton had already established his reputation. Cambridge was a mere intellectual backwater. London was the place to be for intellectual stimulation, influence, recognition and prestige.
As early as he was asking friends like John Locke to explore opportunities for a position in London. Six years later, he got his wish. This book is not just the dual biography of a scientist and a counterfeiter. It is a fascinating view of London in the late 17th century where a commercial revolution was underway. As with all revolutions there were winners and losers.
The losers were very poorly off indeed. They included unskilled and semi-skilled laborers excluded from the craft guilds and forced to accept low-paying piece-work wages while being squeezed by the threat of advancing mechanization. Even a prisoner needed money to stay alive, money to buy food or to forestall brutal treatment.
A series of catastrophes swept the country: the Great Plague in , the Great Fire in , and periodic outbreaks of smallpox, tuberculosis, influenza, malaria and dysentery. Typhus was so prevalent in the prisons that it was known as jail fever. Petty corruption thrived in these conditions.
William Chaloner found modest success as purveyor of quack remedies. However, he was always convinced he was destined for greater things. Chaloner advanced to crude counterfeiting a widespread practice known as clipping which entailed shaving off bits of silver coinage and melting down the metal to create new coins.
As a criminal he demonstrated remarkable enterprise. In England had begun the lugubrious process of striking new coins to replace the debased currency. To discourage counterfeiting, the new coins had etched rims. Chaloner befriended a goldsmith who showed him the techniques for working with molten metal and partnered with a master engraver named Thomas Taylor. Chaloner's ingenuity did not stop there.
In the Bank of England began issuing promissory notes to wealthy bank customers. The cash was then loaned to the government. The success of this transaction rested on the bank's assumption that only a fraction of the notes would be returned for redemption.
The outstanding notes would circulate just like money. The denominations of these notes were large in order to limit them to large financiers. Nevertheless, Chaloner found the craftsmen to create high quality forgeries, and the means to circulate them. Newton was not merely brilliant.
He was methodical, obsessive and patient. He brought these habits to his work as Warden of the Mint, but added one other skill: interrogation of the most relentless and detailed sort. Counterfeiting was a capital crime. Newton quickly discerned that lower rung criminals — the distributors — could easily be persuaded to inform on their higher-ups. In addition, he cultivated his own jailhouse snitch. Given the confines and monotony of prison even the most cautious prisoner was likely to confide in someone.
Newton slowly worked his way up to the top of the counterfeiting ring. Author Thomas Levenson reveals other aspects of Newton's personality. Despite the popular suspicion that alchemists were charlatans, Newton, like Robert Boyle, was a devoted practitioner. This was not merely the curious whim of a polymath.
It was an obsession that absorbed his energy over large parts of a four year period. The author of a mechanical universe could put events in train, but after that primary impulse, the cosmos could wend its way forward through time on its own.
Newton experimented, measured, annotated and interpreted, often in florid mystical language, in pursuit of this evidence of divine activity. The other Newton was an embarrassing uncle to be kept in the attic lest he walk unsteadily down Trumpington Street, uttering just a little too loudly about wingless dragons and infernal fire.
View all 4 comments. We learn about his work in optics, gravity, and mathematics. He also worked on a false science of alchemy and probably suffered from burn-out as a result and needed a change of careers. An opportunity was just around the corner. Newton became the Warden of the Royal Mint. Newton took his job very seriously.
William Chaloner was another type of genius. He was a very successful counterfeiter. Newton and Chaloner cross paths and a battle royal begins. In the end, Chaloner is hung for his crimes Jul 22, John rated it really liked it. Isaac Newton stopped my attempt to get through Physics I-II in college dead in its tracks, so I've kind of stayed out of his way ever since.
However, who could resist an account of Newton matching wits with one of the cleverest counterfeiters of his time? And once I was drawn into the tale, I learned more about Newton's scientific accomplishments and exceedingly strange life than I ever thought anyone could get me to absorb. To distill the story to its essence: Newton, although famous, was poo Isaac Newton stopped my attempt to get through Physics I-II in college dead in its tracks, so I've kind of stayed out of his way ever since.
To distill the story to its essence: Newton, although famous, was poor and bored with his life at Cambridge, despite the fact that he had tenure. Cambridge University was, at the time, an intellectual backwater for anyone with a scientific bent. So friends arranged for him to become Warden of the Royal Mint during one of Britain's worst financial crises, and counterfeiting was rampant. Newton got the Mint to replace the nation's coinage with coins that were much harder to tamper with or duplicate, which made him the marked enemy of the counterfeiters, and one in particular, a devilishly devious character named William Chaloner.
And when Newton decided to take the man down Oct 10, Rob Thompson rated it really liked it Shelves: reviewed , audio , history , challenge , autobiography , non-fiction. For the last half of Newton's adult life, 30 years, he was warden of the Royal Mint as well as Master of the Mint.
Although the post was intended to be a sinecure, Newton took it seriously. By the time of his appointment the currency had been seriously weakened by an increase in clipping and counterfeiting during the Nine Years' War to the extent that it had been decided to recall and replace all hammered silver coinage in circulation. The exercise came close to disaster due to fraud and mismanag For the last half of Newton's adult life, 30 years, he was warden of the Royal Mint as well as Master of the Mint.
The exercise came close to disaster due to fraud and mismanagement, but was salvaged by Newton's personal intervention. Newton's chemical and mathematical knowledge proved of great use in carrying out this Great Recoinage of , a process that was completed in about two years. Despite counterfeiting being considered high treason, punishable by hanging, drawing and quartering, convicting even the most flagrant criminals could be extremely difficult.
Undaunted, Newton conducted more than cross-examinations of witnesses, informers, and suspects between June and Christmas He himself gathered much of the evidence he needed to successfully prosecute 28 coiners. One of Newton's cases as the King's attorney was against William Chaloner. Chaloner's schemes included setting up phony conspiracies of Catholics and then turning in the hapless conspirators whom he had entrapped. Chaloner made himself rich enough to posture as a gentleman.
Petitioning Parliament, Chaloner accused the Mint of providing tools to counterfeiters a charge also made by others. He proposed that he be allowed to inspect the Mint's processes in order to improve them. He petitioned Parliament to adopt his plans for a coinage that could not be counterfeited, while at the same time striking false coins. Newton put Chaloner on trial for counterfeiting and had him sent to Newgate Prison in September But Chaloner had friends in high places, who helped him secure an acquittal and his release.
Newton put him on trial a second time with conclusive evidence. Chaloner was convicted of high treason and hanged, drawn and quartered on 23 March at Tyburn gallows. Then, he was publicly disemboweled. Due to his income from the Mint Newton became very wealthy, although he lost a substantial sum in the collapse of the South Sea Bubble. Newton's niece Catherine Conduitt reported that he "lost twenty thousand pounds. I read this in conjunction with listening to Newtons Law podcast.
I also listened to a dramatised account of his time at the Mint. This was Isaac Newton - Nemesis. Jun 22, Ari rated it really liked it Shelves: casual-nonfiction , biography. It's an ideal airplane book. Read it basically in one sitting, enroute home from Washington. Newton was seriously badass. I had heard, wrongly, that he invented milled edges for coins while Warden of the Mint. He didn't -- they were invented well before him.
What Newton did do as Warden of the Mint is less easy to summarize, but more impressive. He supervised and successfully pushed through the Great Recoinage. No technical innovation, but an impressive display of management skill for somebody fam It's an ideal airplane book. No technical innovation, but an impressive display of management skill for somebody famously asocial who had never previously had any executive role. He also went to extraordinary lengths to combat counterfeiting.
We think of Newton as other-worldly and bookish. But apparently he ran a large network of informants and thief-takers in late 17th century London, tracking down counterfeiters. Newton personally interrogated witnesses, organized investigations, and in some cases, prosecuted offenders.
Many of whom were hanged for their crimes. Nov 03, Shane Phillips rated it really liked it. Well organized. Sep 29, Jim Leffert rated it liked it. In Newton and the Counterfeiter, Levenson initially brings us up to speed on Newton and his work as a scientist. He also explains how through careful thought and relentless experimentation, Newton gradually came to develop the insights and theories that brought him fame.
This part of the book provides a colorful account of a time of crisis and transformation for money and the banking system. Counterfeiting was the widespread cholera and bubonic plague that threatened this nascent financial order, and Newton struggled to inoculate and protect England, when possible, from this contagion. While the previously mentioned parts of the book are informative and engrossing, the story drags a bit when Levenson describes the cat and mouse game between Chaloner and Newton.
Nothing described approaches the derring-do, that David Liss, for example, offers in his fictional stories about Benjamin Weaver, a thief taker in 18th century London, or that can by found in gumshoe fiction or in true life stories from the 20th century such as Agent Zigzag by Ben Macintyre. Mar 02, Holly Weiss rated it really liked it Shelves: non-fiction , history. On June 4, , Issac Newton made a virtually unnoticed arrival as a first year student at Trinity College, Cambridge.
Poor and so preoccupied with his studies that he forgot to eat, he left only to escape the plague of He quietly and diligently studied mathematics, physics and philosophy. When he returned in to complete his degree he had become the greatest mathematician in the world, but was completely unknown.
After being appointed professor he invented the three laws of motion. The book turns to the story of William Chaloner, a generation younger than Newton, who arrived in London poor and unemployed. He learned how to work metal, then gold and perfected an undetectable counterfeit coin. When England released bank notes paper money he saw his chance to outwit the British Mint. Then Sir Issac Newton became its warden. Sir Isaac Newton, father of Calculus, is most famous for his thirty-five year first career as Professor at Trinity College.
He also had a secret career in alchemy. After a nervous breakdown, he gave it up and served as Warden of the Royal Mint captured anyone who made or circulated counterfiet money. As he explored the darker side of humanity, we see a different side of him: a criminal investigator, interrogator and prosecutor. Newton displayed genius in tracking down William Chaloner, the master counterfeiter. This book is an outstanding look at a little-known side of Newton's life.
Fifty pages and notes and bibliography attest to Thomas Levenson's historical research. Aug 08, Tim Hicks rated it really liked it. This is a good complement to what you already knew about Newton. I was waiting for further developments in the story, and was surprised when the main body of the book ended at page of The rest of the book has acknowledgements, notes, bibliography and an index.
The author wants us to know that he did a lot of work on this! Levenson is deft about leading us to the conclusion that Chaloner was good, but not nearly as good as he thought he was. Unfortunately the packaging of this led me to This is a good complement to what you already knew about Newton.
Unfortunately the packaging of this led me to expect Chaloner to be a more worthy opponent, more of a Moriarty. This story is almost a police procedural. I was also a tad surprised to learn that stick-to-principles Newton was capable of being, er, results-oriented when necessary. If you liked this book, note that Newton is highly visible in Neal Stephenson's Baroque Cycle trilogy.
Mar 15, Eileen Daly-Boas rated it really liked it. I wanted to love this book, but I just liked it a lot. It's the kind of book that I'd have to sit down with and say, "well, let's just be friends. Chaloner the counterfeiter less interesting than the beginning of bank notes, and paper money. Newton himself always stays a bit out of reach to us, but Levenson more than adequately tracks the path from logical, theoretical thinker to practical and pragmatic manager a I wanted to love this book, but I just liked it a lot.
Newton himself always stays a bit out of reach to us, but Levenson more than adequately tracks the path from logical, theoretical thinker to practical and pragmatic manager and detective. This book reminded me of David Liss' historical fiction. They both tell detailed and complicated tales that are part mystery, part history lesson. Feb 19, Erik Graff rated it liked it Recommends it for: Newton, monetarism fans. Shelves: biography.
While the focus of this work is on Isaac Newton's later years as master of the British mint and, incidentally, his pursuit of one of the more successful counterfeiters of the era, the book succeeds best, I think, as an easily accessible biography of his life and work. Author Levenson teaches science writing at MIT and that skill set shows, especially in his treatment of Newtonian physics. The stuff about the counterfeiters was rather tedious in comparison, a hook to sell the book presumably.
Just came in through interlibrary loan After a while, this got boring This book was excellent. It provides a more-than-adequate short bio of Isaac Newton 2. In fact, according to the text, practice of alchemy could have led to the penalty of death, and several purported alchemists were hanged or worse for being known as practitioners of the craft.
Newton was well aware of these possibilities and this is probably one reason besides the heretical beliefs he held on the Christian canon that he kept much of his non-mathematical work hidden. Eventually, through the prestige he garnered from being a member of the Royal Society, he was invited to help the realm with issues of currency. His friends and allies apparently contrived this to occur at least partially as they felt his activities in Cambridge were not salubrious to his mental being.
Having lived in quasi-poverty in terms of assets and salary in Cambridge, Newton found himself all at once becoming a wealthy man once he assumed his post at the mint. There were a couple interesting points on Newton here: 1. Newton also apparently did one of the first perhaps the first time-and-motion studies upon assuming the title of master of the mint. Newton also prefigured the notion of fiat currency as a way to control the illicit and legal trade of precious metals from Europe to England for use of forgery and as a way to regulate certain balance of payments issues England was having with various potentates on the continent.
Newton threw himself entirely in his new role, so much so that he even helped lead the investigations to suss out the coin-forger network. Not only leading the interrogations, but doing field work in-cognito. This book is a worthy addition to the books on Newton.
Reading it was a breeze, and I probably could have completed it all in 2 days, but drew it out over a few weeks to serialize the story in my mind. One really feels bad about his fate, hanged till suffocation. Challoner was clearly an intelligent and talented man.
Though Newton was effectively a member of the landed class by birth rate, his family lands were not plentiful nor did they bestow any illustrious titles to him, Newton is mostly a self-made man. Though this book does provide an adequate description of their processes. Overall, highly recommended, either for those interested in Newton, perhaps fans of the Baroque cycle, or even investigative science? View all 3 comments. Jul 15, Robert rated it liked it. Newton and the Counterfeiter by Thomas Levenson recounts Isaac Newton's tenure as Warden of the King's Mint, a sinecure in which, as one might expect, he over-performed.
Firs,t he conducted a spectacularly effective recoinage of England's currency, making it more difficult to counterfeit; then he pursued and ultimately brought William Chaloner, England's most notorious counterfeiter to the gallows. This story is told effectively, folding a sketch of Newton's extraordinary scientific career into t Newton and the Counterfeiter by Thomas Levenson recounts Isaac Newton's tenure as Warden of the King's Mint, a sinecure in which, as one might expect, he over-performed.
This story is told effectively, folding a sketch of Newton's extraordinary scientific career into the core narrative wherein the scientist, who never had managed anything in his life, demonstrated what brilliance can, sometimes, do when confronted by practical problems.
Newton was, undoubtedly, one of a handful of true geniuses humanity has produced. For the better part of his intellectual life, he sequestered himself in mathematical and cosmological thought. Then, in his forties, he became deeply involved in alchemical experimentation. He wasn't able to turn lead into gold, however, and it would appear that a massive depression he experienced had something to do with this failure. Approaching fifty, he wanted to earn more money--he had ample fame--and move from Cambridge, where he was a professor, to London, where life might be more enriching in different ways.
The turn from science pure thought to administration and then detective work has few parallels. I think, for instance, of Robert Oppenheimer, a brilliant physicist who directed the Manhattan Project, but no one else comes to mind. Some of the Amazon verbiage about this book suggests it would make an excellent HBO mini-series.
I think this suggestion is correct. There are many other books that dwell at greater length on Newton's character and personality. His genius was in some measure a function of generalized obsessiveness, a non-stop drive to do away with whatever provoked him. A frightening man, implacable, impossible to out-think. The crafty, amoral, uneducated Chaloner was somewhat similar. He kept coming back to the idea that he could make money grow into more money--more or less the alchemical quest.
Jun 20, Dana Stabenow rated it really liked it.
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