The union rejected the latest offer from companies. The Bank of England is expected to continue to raise the key interest rate to curb inflation. Huw Pill, Chief Economist at the BoE said the central bank is prepared to sacrifice growth to fight against inflation. Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin said on Tuesday that he will remain focused on actual inflation and expectations between now and the July policy meeting, as reported by Reuters.
These comments don't seem to be having a noticeable impact on the dollar's performance against its rivals. As of writing, the US Dollar Index was down 0. German Economy Minister Robert Habeck said on Tuesday that the reduced gas supply had "another dimension" and that it was an economic attack by Russia against Germany, as reported by Reuters. Habeck further argued that the gas supply situation could become worse than the coronavirus pandemic. These comments don't seem to be having a noticeable impact on the shared currency's performance against its major rivals.
In the meantime, the US Dollar Index extends its losses in the week and sits around US Treasury yields remain elevated, and the US year note yields 3. Sector-wise, the leading gainers are Energy, up 4. The laggards but also positive in the day are Utilities, Consumer Staples, and Materials, up by 1. Existing Home Sales in the United States declined by 3. This reading came in worse than the market expectation for a decline of 0.
The US Dollar Index largely ignored this data and was last seen losing 0. The pair was seen trading around the 1. Worries about tightening global supplies allowed crude oil prices to regain positive traction and move away from a one-month low, which, in turn, underpinned the commodity-linked loonie. The Canadian dollar drew additional support from upbeat domestic data, showing that Retail Sales recorded growth of 0. Excluding autos, core retail sales rose 1.
Expectations that the Fed would retain its aggressive policy tightening stance, along with the risk-on impulse, pushed the US Treasury bond yields higher. This, in turn, acted as a tailwind for the buck and helped limit deeper losses for the major. Spot prices, for now, seem to have stalled the recent pullback from the YTD peak, around the 1. Investors will further take cues from Fed Chair Jerome Powell's two-day congressional testimony before placing directional bets.
In the meantime, the broader risk sentiment and the US bond yields might influence the USD, which, along with oil price dynamics could provide some impetus to the pair. This was the biggest rate hike and only the second time the Fed hiked by 75bps, since Jul, Sep, Nov and Dec. But it was growth revisions that caught the attention, as GDP growth outlook has been revised markedly lower to 1. Thus, inflation is still elevated and accelerating sequentially but the headline print will be off its peak i.
However, if inflation accelerates more than 0. Including the bps of hikes to date, this implies a cumulative bps of increases in , bringing the FFTR higher to the range of 3. We maintain our forecast for two more 25bps rate hikes in , but likely to be brought forward to the first three months of , bringing our terminal FFTR to 3.
We continue to see the upside potential being capped on both i. The Turkish lira sinks to new lows vs. Extra risks facing TRY also come from the domestic backyard, as inflation gives no signs of abating, real interest rates remain entrenched in negative figures and the political pressure to keep the CBRT biased towards low interest rates remain omnipresent.
Constant government pressure on the CBRT vs. Bouts of geopolitical concerns. Structural reforms. So far, the pair is gaining 0. On the flip side, a breach of Economists at Scotiabank expect the pair to challenge again the big figure. However, as markets are already positioned for a hawkish European Central Bank ECB , the shared currency is unlikely to enjoy further gains, economists at Scotiabank report.
The oil market is focused on supply constraints, so prices are likely to remain elevated. The reason is the underinvestment in both upstream and downstream operations and the lack of refining capacity. Therefore, the metal is set to move downward over the coming months.
Economists at Rabobank expect the pair to edge higher towards the 0. However, the aussie is likely to be sensitive to risks regarding Chinese economic output and to broader concerns regarding slowing global growth. The index may go to before bouncing back later in the year.
The pair was last seen trading around the The Japanese yen has been the worst-performing G10 currency since March amid the ultra-loose monetary policy stance adopted by the Bank of Japan. This has resulted in a further widening of the Japan-US interest rate differential. The risk-on impulse, along with expectations that the Fed would retain its aggressive policy tightening stance, pushed the US Treasury bond yields higher.
The strong move up could also be attributed to some technical buying above the Furthermore, oscillators on the daily chart are hovering near the overbought territory. This, in turn, warrants caution before placing fresh bullish bets amid modest US dollar weakness. Hence, a subsequent move up is likely to confront resistance near a two-week-old ascending trend-line, currently around mid In the view of strategists at TD Securities the bias is still skewed to the downside under the weight of a hawkish Federal Reserve.
Bond yields have picked up significantly over the past month. In the view of economists at Danske Bank, yields are set to tick up further but recession fears will likely dominate over time. While we expect inflation — not least, underlying inflation — to remain high next year, weaker US growth indicators will likely tend to push yields down although central banks will probably not cut short rates as early as in We previously expected an increase to 3.
Signs that there will not be any consensus for a bps Fed rate hike move in the foreseeable future prompted fresh selling around the US dollar on Tuesday. This, in turn, was seen as a key factor that extended some support to the dollar-denominated commodity. That said, a combination of factors held back traders from placing aggressive bullish bets around gold. The risk-on impulse - as depicted by the strong rally in the global equity markets - kept a lid on any meaningful upside for the safe-haven XAUUSD.
Apart from this, expectations that the Fed would retain its aggressive policy tightening stance, pushed the US Treasury bond yields higher. This further acted as a headwind for the non-yielding gold. That said, the recent breakdown through a multi-week-old trading range and acceptance below a technically significant moving average DMA favours bearish traders and supports prospects for further losses. Hence, any meaningful upside could be seen as a selling opportunity and runs the risk of fizzling out rather quickly.
Traders, however, might refrain from placing aggressive bets ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell's testimony on Wednesday and Thursday. In the meantime, the broader risk sentiment, the US bond yields and the USD price dynamics might provide some impetus to gold. This data shows that the US economy expanded at its historical average in May. This report doesn't seem to be having a noticeable impact on the dollar's performance against its rivals.
This print came in better than the market expectation for an increase of 0. We look for this to then prove a major barrier for an eventual resumption of the core downtrend. Import growth also hit a six-month high of This trimmed the trade surplus by 8.
This would weigh on the 2Q22 current account balance following an unexpected decline in 1Q22 current account surplus to the lowest since 2Q13 at MYR3. Overseas shipments to almost all export destinations recorded positive annual expansion. We maintain our full-year export growth projection of 8. If bulls push harder, then the pair could attempt a move to the minor hurdle at the June 16 high at 1.
Beyond this level comes the day SMA at 1. Spot needs to clear the latter to mitigate the selling pressure and allow for the continuation of the recovery in the short-term horizon. Bulk of 1Q22 approvals was channelled to the manufacturing sector MYR The real estate and agriculture sub-sectors were the biggest recipients of approved investments in the services and primary sectors respectively.
DXY adds to the negative start of the week and briefly visits the area below the Considering the ongoing price action, further correction should not be ruled out in the short-term time frame. That said, another visit to the post-FOMC low at As long as the 4-month line around Looking at the longer run, the outlook for the dollar is seen bullish while above the day SMA at The headline sales are estimated to rise by 0.
Excluding autos, core retail sales probably climbed by 0. Spot prices dropped to a three-day low, though managed to find decent support near the 1. Stronger domestic data would be enough to provide a fresh lift to the Canadian dollar and pave the way for an extension of the pair's recent pullback from the YTD peak, around the 1. Conversely, a softer reading could allow the major to gain some traction.
That said, any immediate market reaction is more likely to remain limited as the focus remains on the latest Canadian consumer inflation figures, due for release on Wednesday. Traders might also prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell's testimony on Wednesday and Thursday. The Retail Sales released by the Statistics Canada is a monthly data that shows all goods sold by retailers based on a sampling of retail stores of different types and sizes.
The retail sales index is often taken as an indicator of consumer confidence. It shows the performance of the retail sector in the short term. Generally speaking, the positive economic growth anticipates bullish movements for the CAD. This is the fifth consecutive policy meeting since Dec that the BOE has raised its key interest rate, taking it to the highest level since in a bid to fight surging inflation. In comparison, two members had declined to put forth guidance that more hikes were needed in May.
We look for an additional bps hike for the rest of this year, after which we expect the BOE to press pause on its hiking cycle. This should see the Bank Rate at 2. That said, the surpass of the peak at In the meantime, while above the 3-month support line near Earlier in the day, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz reiterated that they must prevent a lasting inflation spiral.
These comments don't seem to be having an impact on risk sentiment. The results of the latest manufacturing trends survey conducted by the Confederation of British Industry CBI pointed to an unexpected softening in price pressures. Commenting on the survey, "We may be seeing the first signs that weaker activity is beginning to slow the pace of price increases in the sector," CBI deputy chief economist Anna Leach said, as reported by Reuters. This report doesn't seem to be having a significant impact on the British pound's market valuation.
The safe-haven US dollar extends the previous downfall, in the wake of a better market mood, helping copper price recover some ground. Easing trade tensions between the US and China is also boding well for the commodity.
Additionally, the non-ferrous metal also capitalizes on the emerging supply disruption concerns after workers at Chile's state-owned Codelco, the world's largest copper producer, will start a nationwide strike on Wednesday to protest the government and the company's decision to close a troubled smelter. Meanwhile, falling copper stockpiles at the LME-registered warehouse add to supply concerns, underpinning copper price. Despite the abovementioned positive catalysts for copper, the so-called economic bellwether remains at the mercy of the broader market sentiment.
The steady intraday ascent extended through the first half of the European session and lifted spot prices to a two-day high, around the 1. The risk-on impulse - as depicted by the strong rally across the global equity markets - undermined the safe-haven US dollar. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Sunday that he was "all in" on bringing down inflation and was open to another rate hike of 75 bps in July, though ruled out the more extreme scenario of a bps hike. The markets, however, seem convinced that the Fed would stick to its aggressive policy tightening path to curb soaring inflation.
Furthermore, concerns that rapid interest rate hikes by major central banks would pose challenges to the global economic recovery should keep a lid on any optimistic move in the markets. On the other hand, the Bank of England is expected to adopt a more gradual approach to raising interest rates amid recession fears. This makes it prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before positioning for an extension of the recent bounce from the YTD low, around the 1.
Despite the rapid decline, downward momentum has not improved by much. While there is scope for USD to weaken from here, a sustained decline below 6. Resistance is at 6. As highlighted, the recent build-up in downward momentum has eased and USD is likely to trade between 6.
Looking ahead, a clear break of 6. The pair eyes 1. The market consensus points to a 0. In case the report reveals a bigger than expected contraction, it could have a negative impact on risk mood and help the dollar hold its ground. On the other hand, the greenback should stay on the back foot if Wall Street's main indexes continue to rise decisively after the opening bell.
In case this level fails, additional gains toward 1. European Union EU leaders are expected to maintain the sanctions against Russia at a summit this week, Reuters reports, citing a draft document. The draft document mentions that the EU leaders may consider a possible next round, this time targeting gold. Although no new package is currently being prepared, work is ongoing to identify sectors that could be hit, the officials said.
The US dollar came under renewed selling pressure amid signs that there will not be any consensus for more aggressive Fed rate hikes in the foreseeable future. Fed Governor Christopher Waller - a known hawk - said on Sunday that he was open to another rate hike of 75 bps in July, though ruled out the extreme scenario of a bps hike. Apart from this, a generally positive tone around the equity markets further undermined the greenback's safe-haven demand and benefitted the risk-sensitive kiwi.
The markets, however, seem convinced that the Fed would stick to its policy tightening path to combat stubbornly high inflation, which surged to over a four-decade high in May. The bets were reaffirmed by the Fed's so-called dot plot, showing that the median projection for the federal funds rate stood at 3.
Investors remain concerned that a more aggressive move by major central banks to tackle inflation would pose challenges to the global economic recovery. Traders now look forward to the release of the Existing Home Sales data from the US for some impetus later during the early North American session. India, with just shy of 36 tons of gold imported from Switzerland, stands out.
Less than half of this total went to China and India. This may well be related to the coronavirus lockdowns that had severely restricted public life. The gold price in Indian rupees had dropped sharply from mid-April to mid-May, apparently prompting Indians to buy gold. The Indian central bank had already reported gold imports of more than tons in May. However, this comes as no surprise given that gold ETFs were not in demand and registered outflows.
Markets seem to be shrugging off the looming recession risks. Bulls, however, sense caution amid fresh lockdowns in Shenzhen and Macau, as covid outbreaks spread to southern China. From a short-term technical perspective, AUDUSD has stalled its upside, as bulls lost momentum once again below the critical 0.
That said, the aussie could ease further towards the Alternatively, if the price manages to find acceptance above the aforesaid critical resistance at 0. A sustained move above that barrier is needed to regain the upside traction towards the confluence of the Separately, ECB policymaker Kazimir was reported, as saying that negative rates "should be a thing of history" by September. Gold continued with its struggle to gain any meaningful traction on Tuesday and remained confined in a narrow trading band for the second successive day.
The risk-on impulse - as depicted by a generally positive tone around the global equity markets - turned out to be a key factor that acted as a headwind for the safe-haven gold. Apart from this, a pickup in the US Treasury bond yields further contributed to capping the upside for the non-yielding yellow metal. The markets seem convinced that the US central bank would stick to its aggressive policy tightening path to combat stubbornly high inflation.
The US dollar, however, struggled to attract buyers, instead was pressured by signs that there will not be any consensus for a bps rate hike in the foreseeable future. This was seen as the only factor that offered some support to the dollar-denominated gold and helped limit the downside, at least for the time being, warranting caution for bearish traders.
The mixed fundamental backdrop might hold back traders from placing aggressive directional bets ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell's testimony on Wednesday and Thursday. Apart from this, traders will take cues from the broader market risk sentiment to grab short-term opportunities around gold.
The price actions appear to be part of consolidation phase and USD is likely to trade sideways for today, expected to be within a range of As highlighted, the risk appears to be shifting back to the upside but USD has to close above The chance for USD to close above In the German money markets, the 10y bund yields surpass the 1. Barkin voter, hawk.
Eminent issues on the back boiler : Fragmentation risks. Kickstart of the ECB hiking cycle in July? Asymmetric economic recovery post-pandemic in the euro bloc. So far, spot is gaining 0. On the other hand, a break below 1. The shared currency continues to gather strength following these comments.
Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill reiterated on Tuesday that they will certainly be ready to act if they see evidence of persistent price pressures, as reported by Reuters. The US Dollar Index continues to push lower toward FOMC Chairman Jerome Powell's prepared remarks to be delivered at the semi-annual testimony on Wednesday are expected to be released as well. The trading action remained subdued throughout the day on Monday. While testifying before the European Parliament, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said a recession in the eurozone was not their baseline scenario and reiterated that they intend to raise key rates by 25 basis points bps in July.
Meanwhile, US President Joe Biden said they could decide whether to pause the federal gasoline tax by the end of the week. Lowe added that they will discuss whether they should raise the policy rate by either 25 or 50 bps at the July meeting. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida argued earlier in the day that they should not tweak the monetary policy now. Bank of England policymaker Catherine Mann argued on Monday that a 50 bps rate increase could reduce the risk of domestic inflation being boosted by weaker sterling.
The benchmark year US Treasury bond yield is up more than 0. The downward trajectory dragged spot prices to a three-day low, closer to the 1. Crude oil prices gained some positive traction and built on the overnight bounce from the vicinity of a one-month low amid worries about tightening global supplies, which benefitted the commodity-linked loonie.
That said, growing market concerns about slowing global economic growth and fuel demand could act as a headwind for crude oil prices. Furthermore, expectations that the Fed would tighten its monetary policy at a faster pace to curb soaring inflation could lend support to the USD. The markets seem convinced that the US central bank would stick to its aggressive policy tightening path and have been pricing in another 75 bps rate hike at the next FOMC meeting in July. NZD subsequently traded within a range of 0.
The underlying tone has firmed somewhat and NZD is likely edge higher from here. That said, a clear break of 0. On the downside, a break of 0. As highlighted, the outlook for NZD is mixed and it is likely to trade sideways within a relatively broad range of 0. The Bank of England BoE hiked its policy rate by "only" 25 bps, with three members voting for a larger move. In the end, the increased hawkishness in the communications at this meeting is quite marginal.
The UK may also face structural challenges over a longer term. Indian rupee retreats to The weakening of global risk appetite has been a major obstacle for the Australian dollar as the focus has shifted to the worsening global growth outlook.
Renewed downward pressure on the AUD is a real possibility amid significant volatility as markets re-calibrate tightening expectations. As such, we have downgraded our year-end forecasts to 0. Let's see how this gasoline tax holiday story develops and what size of fiscal stimulus it represents. This should be another factor keeping the dollar strong this summer. The asset has auctioned in a narrow range of 0. On a broader note, the asset has turned balanced in a 0.
However, a rate hike announcement and that too by 50 bps results in an extreme sell-off in the asset. This cleared that the Swiss franc is no more overvalued and is not going to tackle the greenback with bare hands. Considering the runaway inflation in the global markets, the Swiss economy could witness some consequences in the later stages. Therefore, a gradual tightening move seems lucrative for the economy and for the currency.
This subdued price action for the second successive day marks a consolidation phase following the recent strong bullish run to a year high touched last week. It is worth recalling that the Bank of Japan BoJ on Friday decided to leave its ultra-easy monetary policy settings unchanged and reiterated its guidance to keep borrowing costs at "present or lower" levels.
In contrast, the Fed last week delivered the biggest hike since and indicated a faster policy tightening path to tame surging inflation. Moreover, the Fed's so-called dot plot showed that the median year-end projection for the federal funds rate moved up to 3. This makes it prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before positioning for any further near-term appreciating move. Market participants now look forward to the US economic docket, featuring the release of Existing Home Sales later during the early North American session.
Traders will further take cues from the broader market risk sentiment to grab short-term opportunities. Sustained strength beyond the The subsequent move up has the potential to lift spot prices towards the next relevant hurdle near the mid On the flip side, the overnight swing low, around mid This is closely followed by the In doing so, the black gold retreats from the fortnight-long horizontal resistance amid sluggish RSI That said, the pullback moves direct WTI sellers towards the Therefore, the pair could extend its downtrend in the near-term but the medium-term outlook appears to be supportive for the euro, economists at ANZ Bank report.
In the near-term, therefore, USD strength can run further. However, we are not convinced that the medium-term outlook is of persistent USD gains. Secondly, we believe the ECB is determined to prevent fragmentation. Expansionary fiscal and tighter monetary policy provide a supportive backdrop to the euro area whose terms of trade will also recover over the medium-term. Fed repricing is driving USD higher. Although it is difficult to go against dollar strength at present, economists at ANZ Bank still expect dollar strength to wane later in the year.
German GDP is now expected to grow by 1. The pair is adding 0. Gold came under renewed pressure, with the US year yield hitting 3. The premium for physical gold turned positive in China and India, but demand in China has been weighed down by lacklustre retail jewellery sales.
Indian gold imports rebounded in May driven by the traditional wedding season. That said, off-season months could see physical demand weaken. It looks like the food and oil prices have a significant impact on the UK inflation figure.
This will compel the Bank of England BOE to raise interest rates significantly to contain the price pressures. It is worth noting that the BOE has less freedom to elevate interest rates as the Unemployment Rate has increased to 3. Also, the growth prospects are not promising. Higher interest rates are expected to be backed by upbeat growth prospects and a lower jobless rate. Unavailability of the same is restricting the BOE to take bold decisions.
On the dollar front, the US dollar index DXY has advanced gradually after printing an intraday low of The Fed showed a historic move last week after elevating the interest rates by 75 basis points bps for the first time in the past 25 years. That said, a clear upside break of the double tops bear Alternatively, pullback remains elusive until the quote stay above the previously stated support line, near Even if the quote drop below The comments by the first Vice Prime Minister of the Russian government, Andrey Belousov, on the ruble are very interesting.
The government is considering a return to an exchange rate target and seems to plan to abandon the free float, economists at Commerzbank report. Above all, I want to point out that a return to the old exchange rate regimes could possibly constitute an option for the government and might lead to the corresponding fluctuations in the ruble exchange rates if they were to become a reality. This takes a 75 bps move in July off the table, but another 50 bps is a possible. As the market was very nervous and risk averse last week these restrictive expectations were unable to support AUD.
The collapse of the iron ore prices is also putting pressure on AUD, moreover, there are concerns about the Chinese economy as a result of the covid measures there. With inflation rising almost across the board, almost all central banks are raising interest rates rather quickly.
This means that countries where the central bank is not raising interest rates are experiencing and will continue to experience a sharp depreciation of their exchange rates, according to analysts at Natixis. Our view for sideway-trading was not wrong even though GBP traded within a much narrower range than expected 1.
Further sideway-trading appears likely, expected to be within a range of 1. As highlighted, the recent sharp but short-lived swings have resulted in a mixed outlook and GBP could continue to trade in a choppy manner, likely between 1. Bank Indonesia BI will hold the monthly governor board meeting on June. Here you can find the expectations as forecast by the economists and researchers of six major banks regarding the upcoming central bank's decision.
The BI is expected to hold its benchmark seven-day reverse repurchase rate unchanged at 3. Unless the current pressure on the IDR abates in the lead-up to the meeting, we think the more prudent move is a rate hike or at least clear signals that a rate lift-off is near.
The absence of a change in stance could risk BI being perceived as the standout regional laggard and intensify pressure on the IDR. BI is likely to sound more vigilant amid aggressive Fed policy normalisation, highlighting its commitment to maintain macroeconomic stability. We think BI will maintain its current policy settings of responding to tighter external financing by accelerating IDR liquidity absorption through 1 faster RRR hikes, 2 intervening in the spot and domestic NDF markets to stabilise the IDR, and 3 continuing to allow higher bond yields to respond to spikes in UST yield.
With the peak inflation theory falling through and the Fed finally raising the policy rate by 75 bps as inflation spiked beyond expectations, the BI may find it difficult to continue to hold on as global risk-off sentiment rises further.
However, we expect the BI to stay pat during its June meeting and eventually start raising the policy rate starting from 3Q We think this lays the groundwork for liftoff this week. If not, then the next meeting on July Failure to provide a daily closing beyond the day EMA hurdle, around 1. Economists at Goldman Sachs warned over the increasing chances of a US recession this year while downgrading their GDP growth forecasts for the economy.
That implies a 48 per cent cumulative probability in the next two years compared to a 35 per cent estimate previously. Economists maintained their second-quarter growth forecast of 2. The Composite PMI is seen higher marginally to The Services PMI is seen significantly lower at Also, the Manufacturing PMI is expected to shift lower to The news also mentioned that the proposal will have to be passed first by a commission in parliament and later by the general assembly.
Parliament usually breaks from early July to early October. A clear downside of the six-week-old ascending trend line, around The index loses ground for the second session in a row and extends the negative start of the week, although it manages well to keep business above the The dollar is expected to remain vigilant on the ongoing debate over another probable 75 bps rate hike by the Federal Reserve in July, while speculation that the US economy could slip back to recession remains on the rise.
The index came under pressure after climbing to new highs around Escalating geopolitical effervescence vs. Russia and China. US-China trade conflict. Now, the index is losing 0. On the other hand, a break above The asset has experienced offers after attempting to surpass the critical hurdle of 0.
As per the RBA minutes, the extent of the rate hike announcement for July monetary policy will be 25 basis points bps or 50 bps. Household spending is resilient despite depreciated paychecks due to higher price pressures. As per the minutes, the jobless rate is going to remain untouched while fixing the inflation mess, which indicates that the labor market in the Australian economy is extremely tight.
The central bank is focusing on bringing the annual wage growth of 3. Investors should focus on further guidance on interest rates to be provided by Fed Powell in his testimony. Apart from that, the dictation on the current status of annual inflation, Core Consumer Price Index CPI , and the labor market will be of high significance.
However, the HMA and Should the sellers manage to conquer the 0. Meanwhile, the HMA and support line of the aforementioned channel guard short-term upside near 0. EUR subsequently traded within a narrow range of 1. Momentum indicators are mostly neutral and further consolidation would not be surprising. Expected range for today, 1. As highlighted, EUR is likely to consolidate and trade within a range of 1. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said on Tuesday, the monetary policy should not be tweaked now.
Monetary policy must be considered holistically as it affects not only FX, but also interest rates for small businesses. Monetary policy has big impacts on economy through small firms' interest rates, housing mortgages. The black gold appears to benefit from the firmer sentiment, as well as the cautious mood over the supply concerns amid a fresh bout of geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine. In that process, the quote portrayed a double-top bearish chart pattern surrounding the 1.
Markets in the Asian domain are firmer on the improved risk appetite of investors. A strong rebound in the risk-on impulse has underpinned the risk-perceived assets, whose effect is clearly reflected in the Asian equities. The Chinese economy has shown some signs of reversal in the downside trend of the aggregate demand as their oil imports from Russia have jumped significantly. The black gold has rebounded strongly as investors are giving more priority to the supply constraints rather than focusing on the expected demand slump due to recession fears going forward.
The supply constraints are expected to remain for a prolonged period as gauging an alternative to Russia for addressing the demand for fossil fuels is not a cakewalk. Traders should focus on the guidance to be provided on upcoming monetary policy action.
In doing so, the Kiwi pair buyers aim for a downward sloping resistance line from Thursday, around 0. That said, a clear upside break of the 0. The asset is juggling in a narrow range of Usually, an inventory distribution move in the early hours of the trading session calls for an imbalance move in the breakout direction. Therefore, a bullish imbalance move is more likely.
Traders should be aware of the fact that the BOJ kept a dovish stance on the interest rates. Taking into account, the soaring price pressures due to supply chain disruption and the Russia-Ukraine war, world central banks have elevated their interest rates vigorously. Now, the BOJ is seldom operating on ultra-loose monetary policy to spurt the aggregate demand in the economy. The annual inflation rate in the Japanese economy has climbed above its desired levels. That said, an Asian research house Nomura eyes more than double Indian inflation for and keeps the INR sellers hopeful.
However, multiple tops marked around Alternatively, the support-turned-resistance line and the latest high, respectively around Risk flows and the US dollar weakness remain in play so far this week, as investors assess the recent steep sell-off in global stocks. Additionally, they reposition their bets on the dollar ahead of the critical testimony from Fed Chair Jerome Powell scheduled this week.
Gold Price is capitalizing on the reduced haven demand for the greenback, although the renewed uptick in the US Treasury yields is likely to keep any potential rebound restricted. Also read : Is the US on the brink of a recession? That level is the convergence of the Fibonacci The next upside target is seen at the confluence of the Fibonacci The TCD Technical Confluences Detector is a tool to locate and point out those price levels where there is a congestion of indicators, moving averages, Fibonacci levels, Pivot Points, etc.
If you are a short-term trader, you will find entry points for counter-trend strategies and hunt a few points at a time. If you are a medium-to-long-term trader, this tool will allow you to know in advance the price levels where a medium-to-long-term trend may stop and rest, where to unwind positions, or where to increase your position size.
Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki continues to voice his concerns over the sharp depreciation of the yen. Timing and financing sources for swift comprehensive measures to cope with price hikes have not yet been decided. Risk sentiment remains in a firmer spot, weighing negatively on the safe-haven US dollar.
A renewed bid wave may emerge in the dollar should the central bank Chief reinforce his pledge to fight inflation, hinting at a 0. Meanwhile, EUR bulls turn cautious after ECB President Christine Lagarde watered-down expectations of a double-dose rate hike at its next policy meeting in July, citing that they intend to raise key rates by 25 bps next month. Also exerting downside pressure on the metal could be the softer iron ore and a metal basket.
Production in March climbed 10 percent to On the other hand, Peru and Australia also brace for higher production and weigh on the metal prices. The improved appetite for riskier assets dulls the safe-haven appeal of the US dollar, boding well for the high-beta British pound. Referring clients and earning extra profit is easy: sign up as an IB Introducing Broker ; promote your IB website with the help of our creatives; get up to 20 usd for each traded lot of your clients!
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For reference: Non-Farm Payrolls NFP report shows the number of work positions emerged in a month in the USA without account of farm positions and gives traders good opportunities to bank on it. Requests can be processed within three hours of business time of the company. If you have any questions, don't hesitate to contact us: via Online support chat; via ticket system in your Client Area; by email info freshforex. We asked a senior analyst of FreshForex Catherine Main comment on this important economic event: "FRS is expected to state that next raise of the discount rate will be undertaken if macroeconomic statistics is strong enough.
Since inflation is falling and in May [ersonal consumption expenditures price index dropped to its 17 months' Low, we have almost zero chances that the rate will be raised this Summer and Fall. All the traders around the world look forward to this period because quarterly earning reports cause high volatility and provides an excellent opportunity to get high profit within just a couple of hours.
This is a very active time for traders compared to such important economic events as Nonfarm Payrolls release and Fed meetings. According to leading FreshForex analyst Catherine Main the market anticipates positive data releases considering business activity growth in both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors in the second quarter.
Here is a schedule of report releases of the most publicly traded companies in market: Now it is time for CFD trading on American shares! There are 52 CFD on American shares available in our trading platform, including the majority of highly profitable ones mentioned above. Specially for you during the earnings period you can get 50, or dollars for 10 lots according to «Megarebate 2.
Hurry up, the offer is limited! Follow up-to-date news about the most interesting earnings reports in your trading platform and get high profit during high volatility period! Here we will add results of report releases of the market leaders: JPMorgan Chase: net profit in second quarter has increased by IBM released the quarterly earning report after the market closing. In the second quarter the income has fallen by 4.
On July 19th at market opening at 1. MorganStan shares have grown by 3. Microsoft reported revenue growth this Thursday, and their profits have increased by The report was released after market closing, so today the company shares' uptrend may be expected. Visa: the quarterly report pleased traders with positive data.
Revenue and profit have increased by News is being updated Earnings season in USA has started If you have any questions, don't hesitate to contact us: via Online support chat; via ticket system in your Client Area; by email info freshforex. Dear traders, This week is very eventful and FreshForex will help you to earn on it! On August 2nd at 2. Shale oil production reduced by 31 thousand barrels per day over the last week. Such trend will support oil prices. Considering increased employment and growing oil prices we may expect consumer prices growth.
For this reason, BoE may make a number of statements admitting the possibility of scaling back QE program at the beginning of Negative Non-Farm release will weaken US dollar. Trade on News with FreshForex!
To learn exactly how this works, see our article on how interest rates effect forex. The chart below shows how volatile forex can be after an NFP release. The expected NFP results for March 8, were k job additions , the actual result disappointed with only 20k jobs being added.
Forex traders must be wary of data releases like the NFP. Traders could get stopped-out due to the sudden increase in volatility. When volatility increases, spreads do too, and increased spreads can lead to margin calls. Other currency pairs also display an increase in volatility when the NFP releases, and traders must be aware of this as well, because they may get stopped out.
As you can see, the increase in volatility could stop a trader out of their position even though they are not trading a currency pair linked to the US Dollar. Due to the volatile nature of the NFP release, we recommend using a pull-back strategy rather than a breakout strategy. Using a pullback strategy, traders should wait for the currency pair to retrace before entering a trade. If you want to know more about trading the news and data releases, see our trading the news beginner guide.
We also suggest reading our traits of successful traders guide to avoid the number one mistake traders make when trading forex. We also recommend finding out more about the role of central banks in the forex market, and what central bank interventions involve.
Use the DailyFX economic calendar to keep an eye on all the important economic data releases, including central bank speeches and interest rate data. DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets. Leveraged trading in foreign currency or off-exchange products on margin carries significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. We advise you to carefully consider whether trading is appropriate for you based on your personal circumstances.
Forex trading involves risk. Losses can exceed deposits. We recommend that you seek independent advice and ensure you fully understand the risks involved before trading. Live Webinar Live Webinar Events 0. Economic Calendar Economic Calendar Events 0. Duration: min. P: R:. Search Clear Search results. No entries matching your query were found. Free Trading Guides. Please try again. Subscribe to Our Newsletter.
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Fed Barkin Speech. Balance of Trade MAY. It is also important to note in high volatility times, even after waiting for a pattern setup, that rates can reverse quickly. This is why it is very important to have a stop in place. Nonfarm payrolls NFPs are the measure of the number of workers in the United States excluding farm workers and workers in a handful of other job classifications.
The BLS reports the nonfarm payroll numbers to the public on a monthly basis through the closely followed Employment Situation report. The monthly nonfarm payroll report from the BLS can have a substantial impact on foreign exchange forex markets when the numbers are released on the first Friday morning of a new month. Nonfarm payroll reports are released at a. Eastern time on the first Friday of every month.
The logic behind the strategy of trading on the NFP report is based on waiting for a small consolidation, the inside bar, after the initial volatility of the report has subsided and the market is choosing which direction it will go.
By controlling risk with a moderate stop, you are poised to make a potentially large profit from a huge move that almost always occurs each time the NFP report is released. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Markets News. Your Money. Personal Finance. Your Practice.
Popular Courses. Table of Contents Expand. Table of Contents. Analyzing the Non-Farm Report. Trading on News Releases. NFP Trading Strategy. The Rules. Strategy Pitfalls. What is the nonfarm payroll report? What impact does a higher nonfarm payroll have on the foreign exchange forex market?
When does the nonfarm payroll report come out? The Bottom Line. Trading Strategies Day Trading. Understanding this data release can help set up foreign exchange forex trades to take advantage of unexpected changes in employment. Technical analysis can be employed to the NFP report using five- or minute chart intervals. Article Sources. Investopedia requires writers to use primary sources to support their work.
These include white papers, government data, original reporting, and interviews with industry experts. We also reference original research from other reputable publishers where appropriate. You can learn more about the standards we follow in producing accurate, unbiased content in our editorial policy. Compare Accounts. The offers that appear in this table are from partnerships from which Investopedia receives compensation. This compensation may impact how and where listings appear.
Investopedia does not include all offers available in the marketplace. Related Articles. Beginners Playing the Gap. Partner Links. Related Terms. What Is the Modified Hikkake Pattern? The modified hikkake pattern is a rare variant of the basic hikkake that is used to signal reversals. Fade Definition A fade is a contrarian investment strategy that involves trading against the prevailing trend.
Want to know if your trading strategy is good at news? Today is the best chance to find out - #NFP is coming. FBS $50 Welcome Bonus - Forex. ketor.xyz Let us calculate your profits. There is a simple formula for this: 1 pip in the decimal form / the current exchange rate of the quote currency to the US Dollar. 1st Account will be traded with 5% ROI/monthly SAFEST STRATEGY – Consistently – NO Change in Risk-Reward for 2 years, now Profit of 1st.