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Bogleheads momentum investing tools stock market spread betting

Bogleheads momentum investing tools

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Very soon, in about 43 months, it became the leading forum with the maximum engagement. Soon, it became an independent forum at diehards. While it was first published in , the book is packed with valuable information. It is a must-read for anyone wanting an initiation into the process of financial planning and investing.

In the interest of the post length, I will restrict myself to 12 vital learnings I bookmarked from this book. The book starts with 3 mandates for anyone looking to improve the quality of their life and streamline their finances — 1. Choose the net worth mentality rather than the paycheck mentality 2. Pay off credit card and high-interest debts 3. Establish an emergency fund. While the last 2 points are number-based no-brainers, to me the first point is the real game changer.

The day you reject the paycheck to paycheck mentality that you see with most people around you, is the day you become serious about your financial life. Bogleheads define a speculator as someone who is expecting to quickly trade and turn in a profit. While some of the speculators may actually profit, the odds are against them. This is not a practice recommended by Bogleheads at all. They are rather of the view that investing involves holding for long periods and harvesting the returns later on.

This is a view I subscribe to, and according to me also a practice that will be less stressful in the longer run. Vanguard is a name synonymous with Index Funds. Index funds end up massively reducing the cost of managing the fund, thereby giving better returns than most other actively managed funds. While this concept is definitely valid for a mature market like the US, in India I do believe actively managed funds are giving incremental returns over market indices, even after taking higher costs into consideration.

In fact, there are a few inherent problems with index investing in India, as evidenced by this article. I also do not agree with the fact that stock picking is not an option. One should not jump into the deep end with no background, education or understanding about value investing.

However, when stocks with good fundamentals are held for the long run, in a well-diversified portfolio, I do believe they are more likely to bring higher returns. Get acquainted with the basics of stocks with this post.

The bogleheads make a case for the fact that with high cost, surrender fees, and decreased tax benefits, annuities are not a good option for investors. I second that point wholeheartedly. In India too, most annuities ads bring forth such numbers which look attractive but finally the rate of return powering those numbers is pretty bad compared to other investment vehicles.

In the realm of taxation too, annuity holders end up losing out. With annuities, in effect, you end up paying post-tax income to get a low rate of return and taxable income. Henry Markowitz and his portfolio theory are one of the best-known sources of knowledge when it comes to asset allocation. He was one of the first people to point out that a mixture of volatile non-correlated securities could result in a portfolio with lower volatility and possibly higher return.

Stocks, bonds, and cash are 3 investment vehicles proven to have worked well together in a portfolio. The bogleheads recommend you determine your asset allocation on the basis of 4 parameters — goals, time frame, risk tolerance, personal finance situation. Another recommendation by John Bogle is to own your age in bonds. The reason for this is simple — bonds are a less volatile investment instrument whereby it is advisable to increase contribution to the portfolio, as we age.

To be honest, only after reading this did I really start looking up expense ratios for the mutual funds I was considering. This principle also makes you start questioning if you should buy funds directly from AMCs or from a broker because when you do buy with a broker, you end up paying brokerage and expense ratio on the fund. The expense ratios for most well-performing mutual funds in India is in the range of 1. You might think that is a miniscule number, but as this example from Value Research shows , Rs.

Costs need to be a factor of consideration for stock investing as well. One big reason in favor of long-term investing is the cost you end up paying to the broker when you trade too often, based on the frequency with which you churn. Churn or turnover is another factor liable to bring down the returns on your mutual fund.

Ensure you invest in a fund with a lower turnover ratio. Terry Odean and Brad Barber, two professors at the University of California, did a study of 66, investors between and The study concluded that buy-and-hold investors outperformed most active traders by 7. Invest lesser time, lesser stress and get better returns. I see it as a win-win. So, freeze on a long-term asset allocation and sit tight. The authors make some interesting revelations as to how windfall can come through other means like inheritance and divorce settlement and the fact that most people do receive a windfall at least once in their lifetime.

Equally revealing is the fact that NBC News reported that more than 70 percent of lottery winners exhaust their fortunes within three years. To manage a windfall, the authors recommend a 4-step plan — 1. Deposit the money in a safe account for at least six months and leave it alone. Get a realistic estimate of what the windfall can buy. Make a wish list. Get professional help.

A lot of people forget the taxation aspect and overestimate what this new money can buy them, like the aforesaid jet plane. Ensure sudden new wishes do not exhaust the windfall immediately. That is, U. And remember what we know about expensiveness: cheap stocks have greater expected returns and expensive stocks have lower expected returns. For U.

International stocks tend to outperform U. Just like with the stock market, it is impossible to predict which way a particular currency will move next. Dalio and Bridgewater maintain that global diversification in equities is going to become increasingly important given the geopolitical climate, trade and capital dynamics, and differences in monetary policy. They suggest that it is now even less prudent to assume a preconceived bet that any single country will be the clear winner in terms of stock market returns.

In short, geographic diversification in equities has huge potential upside and little downside for investors. To broadly diversify across U. For bonds , the obvious and popular choice is a total U. For that reason, my blanket recommendation for a one-fund, one-size-fits-most bond choice would be intermediate-term treasury bonds, which should roughly match the average maturity of the total treasury bond market.

This ETF has an effective duration of about 18 years. Investors can dial in a specific bond duration using a combination of different duration bond funds. The inclusion of international bonds in diversified portfolios and target date funds is a fairly recent occurrence. The evidence seems to show that international bonds may offer a small diversification benefit in terms of credit risk on the fixed income side due to their low correlation with both U. This potential diversification benefit is even less convincing for a portfolio that is not bond-heavy.

The infamous Larry Swedroe suggests , based on a Vanguard paper, that investing in foreign bonds may be prudent for reducing portfolio volatility if and only if the investor can do so with low fees and with currency hedging to eliminate currency risk. The backtests below are for the period showing variations of the Bogleheads 3 Fund Portfolio vs.

Portfolio 1 uses the prescribed total bond market. Portfolio 2 is my suggested variation using intermediate treasury bonds. Portfolio 3, particularly suitable for a younger investor or one who desires to assume slightly more risk, uses long-term treasury bonds. Again, this is because corporate bonds are inherently more correlated to stocks. Notice the much higher general and risk-adjusted returns and lower overall volatility of Portfolio 3 with long-term treasuries.

It also has a smaller max drawdown. M1 Finance is a great choice of broker to implement the Bogleheads 3 Fund Portfolio because it makes regular rebalancing seamless and easy, has zero transaction fees, allows fractional shares, and incorporates dynamic rebalancing for new deposits. I wrote a comprehensive review of M1 Finance here. Canadian investors can use Questrade , and those outside North America can use eToro. Disclaimer: While I love diving into investing-related data and playing around with backtests, I am in no way a certified expert.

I have no formal financial education. I am not a financial advisor, portfolio manager, or accountant. This is not financial advice, investing advice, or tax advice. The information on this website is for informational and recreational purposes only. Investment products discussed ETFs, mutual funds, etc. It is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or otherwise transact in any of the products mentioned.

Do your own due diligence. Past performance does not guarantee future returns. Read my lengthier disclaimer here. Analytical and entrepreneurial-minded data nerd, usability enthusiast, Boglehead, and Oxford comma advocate. I lead the Paid Search marketing efforts at Gild Group.

I'm not a big fan of social media, but you can find me on LinkedIn and Reddit. Is the 3 fund portfolio the best for someone who has a 5 year retirement time horizon and does not want to take too much risk in the present climate? Regarding the international bond findings, I noticed the studies suffer recency bias. They start in , there was a bond bull market since.

As for the home country bias, I feel Americans have had home country negative bias recently. Now this can revert on its head, but still. To avoid the home country bias, would it be advisable to split the stocks evenly for both US and international? Is there a reason your suggested portfolio overweighed US stocks? Curious, is there a reason your suggested portfolios have a much stronger US weight vs international?

I have finally chosen the Bogleheads approach after keeping myself up at night worrying about my stock picks. Many of your other articles advocate for matching market weight. I would be interested in your thoughts on using Portfolio 3 above in a leverage strategy. Thanks, Rudy! No great options for leveraged international funds. Would basically end up looking like HFEA.

This backtest provides a rough idea. I think it would be helpful if you would post quarterly updates of your Ginger Ale portfolio as matched against a Boglehead 3- Fund portfolio with the same about in bonds. Not a bad idea I guess, but they serve different purposes and are for different audiences.

Factors are a long-term play, so something like rolling year periods would make more sense than quarterly. Hey Rick. My idea would be to replace bonds with commodities, include some crypto, and increase shares for emerging markets and value equities.

Stocks in general do well from inflation. I hate commodities. Hi John, Great read; thanks for breaking it all down. Just trying to decide if I switch over to a 3 fund portfolio completely, or just add the fund to the others and live with the overlap is it that bad? As usual, it comes down to time horizon and personal risk tolerance. Had you needed to withdraw anytime between and , the 3-Fund would have come out ahead with higher general returns as well.

I had the same question so thanks for answering, John. I am in the process of rebalancing now and look forward to many great years in retirement. Your email address will not be published. Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment. Don't subscribe All Replies to my comments Notify me of followup comments via e-mail.

You can also subscribe without commenting. Fidelity M1 Finance vs. Vanguard Webull vs. Robinhood Stash vs. Learn More. Comments Is the 3 fund portfolio the best for someone who has a 5 year retirement time horizon and does not want to take too much risk in the present climate? Thanks for your sensible approach and recommendations. Thanks — I really appreciate your site and work!

Somewhat arbitrary.

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Bogleheads 3 Fund Portfolio Review \u0026 Vanguard ETFs To Use

The strategy for Global Equity Momentum is very simple. You simply take a US stock index, an international stock index and a bond index (eg VTI. I use my own version of Dual Momentum with some of my money. It is identical than the advertised DM, but with different equity investments. The strategy as a whole seems sound, but when the market is bouncing around really close to the t-bill rate it's a little bit nerve racking.